{"id":730,"date":"2021-04-29T15:27:07","date_gmt":"2021-04-29T13:27:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.meteomadagascar.mg\/?page_id=730"},"modified":"2026-10-02T17:15:13","modified_gmt":"2026-10-02T15:15:13","slug":"previsions-saisonnieres-hiver-meteo-madagascar","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/www.meteomadagascar.mg\/prevision\/previsions-saisonnieres-hiver-meteo-madagascar\/","title":{"rendered":"Perspectives climatiques pour la saison chaude et humide 2026-2027"},"content":{"rendered":"<h4><strong>SITUATION GENERALE<\/strong><\/h4>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">L\u2019intensit\u00e9 pr\u00e9vue de l\u2019El Ni\u00f1o est principalement forte \u00e0 tr\u00e8s forte entre Octobre 2026 et F\u00e9vrier 2027, avec une probabilit\u00e9 particuli\u00e8rement \u00e9lev\u00e9e d\u2019un El Ni\u00f1o tr\u00e8s fort (\u2265 2,0 \u00b0C) au d\u00e9but de la saison chaude et humide. \u00c0 partir de Mars 2027, l\u2019intensit\u00e9 devrait progressivement diminuer, avec une transition vers des conditions El Ni\u00f1o faibles \u00e0 mod\u00e9r\u00e9es, puis davantage de conditions neutres vers Avril ou Mai 2027.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Un IOD (Indian Ocean Dipole) positif est pr\u00e9vu \u00e0 partir d\u2019Octobre 2026. Son intensit\u00e9 d\u2019environ +0,8 \u00e0 +1,0 \u00b0C en Octobre et Novembre, correspondant \u00e0 un \u00e9pisode positif mod\u00e9r\u00e9 \u00e0 marqu\u00e9. L\u2019indice diminue progressivement \u00e0 partir de D\u00e9cembre et devrait revenir vers des conditions neutres autour de Janvier ou F\u00e9vrier 2027, puis l\u00e9g\u00e8rement n\u00e9gatives vers Mars.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Des pr\u00e9visions majoritairement n\u00e9gatives du SIOD (Sourthern Indian Ocean Dipole) \u00e0 partir d\u2019Octobre 2026, indiquant une tendance vers un SIOD n\u00e9gatif. L\u2019ensemble des mod\u00e8les sugg\u00e8re une intensification jusqu\u2019\u00e0 environ -0,5 \u00e0 -1,0 \u00b0C entre Novembre 2026 et Janvier 2027, avant une l\u00e9g\u00e8re att\u00e9nuation au cours de F\u00e9vrier \u00e0 Avril 2027.<\/p>\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>SITUATION GENERALE L\u2019intensit\u00e9 pr\u00e9vue de l\u2019El Ni\u00f1o est principalement forte \u00e0 tr\u00e8s forte entre Octobre 2026 et F\u00e9vrier 2027, avec une probabilit\u00e9 particuli\u00e8rement \u00e9lev\u00e9e d\u2019un El Ni\u00f1o tr\u00e8s fort (\u2265 2,0 \u00b0C) au d\u00e9but de la saison chaude et humide. \u00c0 partir de Mars 2027, l\u2019intensit\u00e9 devrait progressivement diminuer, avec une transition vers des conditions [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"parent":701,"menu_order":9,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"page-templates\/tendance-saisonniere.php","meta":{"inline_featured_image":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"class_list":["post-730","page","type-page","status-publish","hentry"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n<title>Perspectives climatiques pour la saison chaude et humide 2026-2027 - 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